再次做客CGTN｜「GTC泽汇」首席分析师：经贸磋商成果几何，下一步看什么？

第二轮贸易投资磋商在京结束，双方就关税、出口管制、知识产权和世贸组织改革等议题达成一系列共识。

「GTC泽汇」首席分析师 Jameel Ahmad 做客 CGTN ，围绕哪些成果分量最重、对话机制如何改革、电动汽车与稀土如何化解，以及中欧经济合作还有哪些未释放潜力展开解读。

👇以下是文字预览👇

CGTN: More insights on the key outcomes from the China-EU Commerce Officials Meeting. I'd like to bring in Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst at online trading brokerage GTCFX. Thank you very much for joining us on the show. So, China and the EU have just wrapped up their second trade investment consultation in Beijing, and both sides came away with a list of agreed outcomes, spanning tariffs, export controls, IP and WTO reform. Of everything on that list, which outcomes carry the most weight, and where do you expect concrete commitments to land first?

中国国际电视台：接下来，我们进一步解读中欧商务官员会议的主要成果。今天请到在线交易经纪商「GTC泽汇」的首席分析师Jameel Ahmad。非常感谢你参加我们的节目。中国和欧盟刚刚在北京结束第二轮贸易投资磋商，双方就关税、出口管制、知识产权和世贸组织改革等议题达成一系列共识。在这些成果中，你认为哪些最重要?你预计哪些方面会最先有具体承诺落地?

GTCFX: I would say what carries the most weight here is that actually there's a clear timetable that's being made available in terms of when we can expect progress, such as another form of discussions in January and then once again in March. If you can ask what exactly progress would look like, likely going to see something around faster approval times, easier access to goods for consumers, and we shouldn't forget here that China is an extraordinarily important import market for the European Union. In fact, the European Union imports the most goods from China, so it's very important for the European Union. But if you look from the perspective of China, obviously the EU is an important export market, but it's not the most important export market for the European Union, which is actually the Asian region as a whole. So it looks like the European Union here are going to be maybe taking the lead in trying to see what progress can be made, because they do need the European Union. So the European Union does need Chinese goods into the EU markets to support consumers.

「GTC泽汇」：我认为，最重要的是双方已经给出了明确时间表，让我们能比较清楚地预期什么时候会取得进展。比如，1月还会有某种形式的讨论，3月还会再谈一次。如果要问进展具体会是什么样，可能会体现在加快审批流程、让消费者更容易获得相关商品这些方面。这里不能忽视一点，中国对欧盟来说是极其重要的进口来源地。事实上，中国是欧盟最大的商品进口来源国，所以中国对欧盟非常重要。但从中国角度看，欧盟当然是重要出口市场，却不是中国最重要的出口市场。中国最重要的出口市场其实是整个亚洲地区。所以，在推动进展方面，欧盟可能会更主动一些，因为欧盟确实需要中国商品进入欧洲市场，来满足消费者需求。

CGTN: Both sides have built these extensive cooperation frameworks over the years, yet trade frictions keep resurfacing and persisting, most recently over EVs and rare earths. What reforms to these dialogue mechanisms would make negotiations more predictable and commercially meaningful for businesses on both sides?

中国国际电视台：多年来，双方建立了广泛的合作框架，但贸易摩擦仍反复出现、持续存在，最近在电动汽车和稀土问题上尤其明显。你认为，这些对话机制应如何改革，才能让谈判更可预期，也对双方企业更有商业意义?

GTCFX: It would likely be from the administration side, trying to get faster regulatory approvals and faster access and transport of goods to each respective market. Again, the European Union and the Chinese economy are the largest economies in the world. So they're not just important to each other, as we pointed out in the previous question, but a stronger Chinese economy is important for the global economy, and a stronger European economy, the European Union, is important for the world economy too, because both are huge trade nations. So any progress that can be made in terms of any of those products you mentioned, and then improving the economic efficiency of either economy, it means a stronger global economic sentiment too.

「GTC泽汇」：可能主要还是要从行政管理和监管流程入手，争取加快监管审批，让商品更快进入各自市场，并提高运输效率。再说一次，中国和欧盟都是全球规模最大的经济体。所以它们不仅对彼此重要，正如刚才所说，中国经济更加强劲，对全球经济很重要，欧盟经济更加强劲，同样有利于世界经济，因为双方都是全球重要的贸易经济体。因此，无论是在你提到的这些产品上取得进展，还是提高各自经济效率，都会增强全球经济信心。

CGTN: Looking ahead, where do you see the greatest untapped potential for China-EU economic cooperation, and what sort of policy barriers would need to be cleared first to unlock that potential?

中国国际电视台：展望未来，你认为中欧经济合作还有哪些最大潜力没有释放?要释放这些潜力，先要清除哪些政策障碍?

GTCFX: So essentially, over the 2020 so far, we've seen a lot of economic transformation in China, where the economy has transformed and reestablished its reputation somewhat from a manufacturing exporter of lower-cost goods towards being a provider of exporting technologies, particularly in artificial intelligence, high-level tech, and exporting those to different markets. And the European Union is one of those markets that has been a little bit more conservative when it comes to tech goods or AI. So the European Union could certainly lean on those expertise products available from China. And we also then consider what's happening with the world economy or geopolitics, the unfortunate things that we are seeing around certain regions of the world, which are weakening economic sentiment. So overall, a stronger Chinese and European Union commitment, bilateral relations and economic relationship, that will only provide improvements and enhance economic sentiment on a world level.

「GTC泽汇」：总的来说，2020年以来，中国经济经历了显著转型。中国正逐步从以出口低成本制造业产品为主，转向更多出口技术，尤其是在人工智能和高端技术领域，并将相关技术和产品出口到不同市场。这一转变也在一定程度上重塑了外界对中国经济的印象。欧盟就是其中一个市场，而欧盟在科技产品、人工智能方面一直比较保守。所以欧盟完全可以利用中国在这些领域的技术优势，以及中国能够提供的相关技术和产品。另外还要考虑世界经济和地缘政治。世界上一些地区发生的令人遗憾的事件，正在削弱市场对经济前景的信心。所以总体而言，如果中国和欧盟能够进一步深化双边关系、加强经贸合作，就有助于提振全球经济信心。

CGTN: Thank you very much, Jameel Ahmad. I really appreciate your analysis and insight. He is Chief Analyst at GTCFX.

中国国际电视台：非常感谢Jameel Ahmad 接受我们的采访，并分享他的分析和见解。他是「GTC泽汇」的首席分析师。